Current Challenges and the Future of Central Bank Statistics

PDF brochrue can be downloaded here.

Monday 28 June 2010

New Data Needs and Management Challenges

Identifying new statistical needs for policymaking
Speaker to be confirmed

Central bank statisticians must deliver relevant and reliable data to meet users’ needs. But what are those needs and how has the financial crisis changed them? This session looks at two of the most important functions of modern central banks – monetary policy and financial stability – and how statistics are used in decision-making. The speaker will consider, from the perspective of a senior policymaker, how demands are changing through the use of new models, not just for the content but also for the presentation of statistics. The group will discuss what new data needs have emerged in the wake of the financial and economic turmoil, and how these can be met.

Managing central bank statistics
Peter Bull, Former Head and Current Advisor to the Statistics Directorate, European Central Bank

The chairman will outline the most significant management challenges to meeting the expectations placed on the statistics office – and identify how these expectations and demands are shifting. Participants will be asked to give a brief account of their own system and processes for gathering, managing and presenting statistics. The session also allows delegates the opportunity to coordinate their thinking about which themes will be discussed in detail over the course of the seminar.

The organisation and management of central bank statistics: key issues
Peter Bull

This session will consider questions relating to reporting lines, codes of practice, and the separation of statistics and policy roles. It will also address relationships with external suppliers of statistics, and the key issues related to the legislation required for this. The speaker, who was responsible for setting up a statistics division from scratch for the European Central Bank (and its predecessor, the European Monetary Institute), will outline what the appropriate objectives and operational procedures are for the statistics function within a central bank, and highlight the approaches taken by a number of central banks.

Tuesday 29 June 2010

Emerging Trends in Balance-of-Payments and Financial Statistics

Integrated macroeconomic accounts and the central bank’s role
Stuart Brown, Statistical Consultant, Former Division Head, UK Office for National Statistics

The central bank is responsible for collecting only a subset of national economic statistics. It acts both as a supplier of this specialised information and as a consumer of wider statistical information. This session addresses why the system of macroeconomic national accounts should be viewed as an integrated framework, and outlines the central bank’s typical role as supplier of money, banking and balance-of-payments statistics. The speaker will examine how formal and informal working relationships with a national statistical office can be established, including common definitions and procedures, and codes of practice.

Approaches to compiling balance-of-payments statistics
Stuart Brown

Central banks are often responsible for the compilation of balance-of-payments statistics, but there are two competing approaches to this task. Countries with a history of regulatory capital controls have typically retained a transactions approach, collecting data on customer transactions via the banking system. Others use a survey approach. Increasingly a mixture is being adopted. The speaker will describe the use of security databases to compile statistics on portfolio investment levels and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the approach.

Statistical implications of the ongoing global crisis: the IMF view
Alfredo Leone, Deputy Director, Statistics Department, International Monetary Fund

The International Monetary Fund has an important influence on central bank statistics through its data standards and reporting requirements. This session will examine the central role of statistics in Article IV consultations. It will also cover key operational issues related to current and new reporting requirements, including the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS), the Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS), data quality, IMF manuals including financial soundness indicators, International Financial Statistics, and the Fund’s technical assistance role in statistics. The role of the Fund in addressing information gaps highlighted by the ongoing financial crisis will be examined in depth.

Best practice in collecting banking statistics
Speaker to be confirmed

The compilation of monetary statistics from banking data is a core function of central banks, and remains an important consideration in monetary policy. The speaker will discuss the IMF standards for monetary statistics and give some examples of definitions used around the world. He will consider a number of practical issues of measurement including stocks versus flows, how the data relate to other key statistical areas, and what lessons can be drawn from the financial crisis on international cooperation and coordination in the collection and standardisation of cross-border banking statistics.

Lessons from participants’ experience
Led by Peter Bull

In this session participants will have an opportunity to work in syndicated groups to share their experiences in specific work areas. Depending on the preference of participants, the following topics could be covered:

• Monetary and financial statistics (including banking statistics, data relating to other financial intermediaries);
• Balance-of-payments statistics;
• Financial markets data (interest rates, yields, prices, securities data);
• The scope of central bank statistical work and meeting new demands; and
• Management and links to national statistical offices and national accounts (including integrated economic and financial accounts by institutional sector).

Wednesday 30 June 2010

Delivering Statistics in a Decentralised Environment

Achieving better reference data
Francis Gross, Head of Division, External Statistics, European Central Bank

Reference data on instruments and entities has long been, and still is, a largely neglected backwater of statistics and economic analysis and of data processing in the financial industry. However, it represents the most basic infrastructural layer on which all other data is built: this is where instruments, entities and their properties are identified, labelled and given values. Further processing and analysis is usually done without contact with the underlying reality, so that errors can, and usually do, propagate downstream undetected. Moreover, when reference data exists, accessibility and usability are often issues as is a lack of standards. This session will discuss the ECB’s approach to, and experience with, micro-data-based statistics, and draw out lessons for the group.

New demands: data on financial derivatives
Speaker to be confirmed

Nothing has more forcefully underlined just how systemically important the now massive global market for financial derivatives has become than the financial turmoil that started in August 2007. Yet central bankers and financial regulators around the world have frequently pointed out that they lack timely and accurate data on various derivative markets, particularly credit default swaps and other prominent structured products. Given that these markets still largely operate in non-transparent over-the-counter environments, what can official statisticians do to improve statistics on financial derivatives? In this session, the speaker will present an overview of the approaches being taken on a national and international level to improve data collection on derivatives, and suggest potential fruitful steps for the future.

Case-study: Exploring micro-databases for statistical purposes Ana Margarida de Almeida, Deputy Director, Statistics Department, Bank of Portugal

The use of micro-databases and item-by-item reporting, covering different areas of the economy and the financial markets, has been helping national central banks worldwide to circumvent a number of shortcomings related to the conventional data collecting systems. The use of such data for statistical purposes can deliver significant reductions in respondent burden, higher data quality and enhanced responsiveness to ad hoc information requests from the users. The Bank of Portugal has been following this approach for some time, exploring the statistical potential of various sources of information, including a number of different administrative databases. This session will review the work being done by the central bank in re-using and sharing micro data for statistical purposes, and will address key operational issues related to the implementation of this approach.

Lessons form participants’ experience
Led by Peter Bull

In this session, participants will be asked to prepare a short presentation to other working-group members on the following morning. The focus will be on identifying the commonalities and differences in individual experiences – and what they mean for the management of the statistical function.

Thursday 1 July 2010

Lessons Learnt from the Financial Crisis

What are the data needs for a macroprudential approach?
Bernd Braasch, Director, Financial Stability Department, Deutsche Bundesbank

The financial crisis clearly underlined the importance of a macroprudential approach in financial stability analysis. The turmoil revealed information gaps on cross border linkages and related systemic risks. Moreover, with financial globalisation, new types of investors and financial innovation have changed market dynamics, the channels of contagion across financial markets and countries and spill-over effects into the real economy. In this session the group will discuss the resourcing issues they face in meeting these new challenges in data collection.

Compiling and presenting remittance statistics
Jens Walter, Head, Balance of Payments and IIP Division, Deutsche Bundesbank

The increasing importance of migrant remittances has now been recognised by developed and developing countries alike. Indeed the need to have timely and accurate data on remittances within the framework for compiling balance-of-payments statistics is increasingly recognised. Despite the high political interest in remittances, precise estimates of global remittances flows are difficult to make due to the significant share of remittances transferred via informal channels and differences in reporting practices and methodologies used by countries. To achieve better and more coherent data on remittances, two expert groups where founded on the initiative of the World Bank and the IMF in 2005. This session will survey the work being done on the international level since then to improve the collection of remittance statistics and provide examples of how remittance data can be collected for different transaction channels on a national level.

Lessons and key issues for the future of central bank statistics
Led by Peter Bull

This final discussion session will aim to maximise the practical benefit of the week's key themes and issues. Participants will identify and discuss how the experiences and ideas from earlier sessions could be specifically applied to their own institution's challenges and priorities and solutions to the future